An interview at the Book Expo America with John Zogby the founder of Zogby International, the competitor of Gallup Polls. The John Kerry snafu is discussed along with information about the perceived recession, the quality of the polling system and that America has a surprisingly thriving book market and the fact that America is still reading books.

Peter: You are listening to The Business Shrink Program and your Business Shrink, Peter Morris, is on the job somewhere making those millions of dollars he makes. I’m Peter Laufer standing in for him and broadcasting from the floor of the BEA “Book expo America”. It’s the most important book fair in the United States, one of the most important in the world. There’s a huge one in Frankfort and another huge one in Guadalajara and there’s this huge one here in down town Los Angeles at the convention center where we’re broadcasting. I’m going to take the guest microphone and I’ll tell you who our guests are going to be this hour in just a second, but I’m going to crank up the volume here on the guest microphone so you can hear all the people who are inundating the convention center here in Los Angeles and here at the Adam’s Media Booth. Now, the reason I’m here at the Adam’s Media Booth is because the first in the Business Shrink book series is being launched today here at the BEA. The book is the Dysfunctional Workplace and it is Peter Morris’ first book of a series to help you understand the strategy and psychology of business. And it’s an exciting time to be giving the book away to those who happen to be wandering by the Adam’s Media Booth here at the convention center because people are in fact intrigued and it’s flying off the shelves here and part of the reason they are intrigued, I’m sure because it is a Business Shrink publication but also because of the intriguing cover. The title is terrific, The Dysfunctional Workplace and the F in dysfunctional is prominently displayed in reverse fashion so it definitely plays to the reality of this being the book about the dysfunctional workplace but it is a tool, it’s a prescriptive tool. It’s as the subtitle says “From chaos to collaboration, a guide to keeping sane on the job”, much needed therapy for the workplace. Are you bullied or harassed at work? Is your boss something out of a horror movie? Do your fellow employees backstab, scapegoat, and do everything but work together as a team? If so, you’re not alone. 9 out of 10 workplaces experience some form of uncivil behavior but don’t despair says your business shrink Peter Morris. He is in the house. The doctor Peter Morris, the Business Shrink, here to listen to your problems and tell you what to do about them. And in the book, he will help you stand up to the bully and get your co-workers behind you, send the monster boss back to his lair, and bring your fellow workers together and get them all pulling in the same direction. It’s a terrific book. I can vouch for it. Includes a CD with interviews with your Business Shrink, Peter Morris, and we’re glad to be giving it away here today as we launch at the Book Expo America and I’m most pleased to welcome the Business Shrinks first guest this hour to the program John Zogby. John welcome to the program.

John: Hi! Good to be with you.

Peter: It is terrific to have you here. And you’re here for a few reasons. First of all you’re right across at the Random House booth because you have a book coming out now too and we’ll talk about that book so that we can draw some attention to the audience.

John: “The Way We’ll Be.”

Peter: “The Way We’ll Be.” Everybody knows your name now even if they don’t know you because of the Zogby poll and it use to be that the Gallop poll was the poll, right? And then you came along. So before we talk about the book, and we talk about your most recent poll, which relates directly to books and of course we are interested in it because of the Business Shrink book. What’s the history? You came along and Gallop owned the business, why did you think there was room for somebody else?

John: Well I thought that it was simply because it was the mid’ 1980’s, there were big companies like Gallop that were doing the more global sorts of things and we came along at a time and it took the blue highways approach in the 1980’s. We did all the little sheriffs races and all local communities that were investigating issues like recycling and anti-smoking ordinances and so on, so we built up this little infrastructure from the bottom up and so by the early 1990’s if I could continue the metaphor it just sort of percolated from the bottom up and we entered into the national scene.

Peter: In a way, maybe even more interesting, it’s one thing to say, is it Clinton or is it Obama? But to learn about things like if there should be another casino in Sonoma County California or if the sheriff in Tulsa is in fact on the take, that might be sexier stuff.

John: Well you know in a lot of ways it is. You know a lot of people, there are a lot of political junkies and a lot of the political junkies really love it on the census tract level and the precinct level, but I also learned a lot. You learn a lot about people’s values and the importance of geography and the factors at a local level that really make us who we are and so by the time we started really polling a lot nationally in the early mid 1990’s I felt like we had this infrastructure of data about bits and pieces of the American people and their most intimate level.

Peter: And certainly technique. You’re listening to the Business Shrink program. The Business Shrink, Peter Morris off making lots of money. I’m Peter Laufer standing in for him and pleased to do it here at the BEA where we’re launching the Dysfunctional Workplace the first in the Business Shrink series of books and talking with John Zogby the author of “The Way We’ll Be,” the pollster. Now John, you’re talking about how you learn all of this, but methodology is always an issue. Who are you to be able to tell me that you know what I’m thinking and how do you know when you ask me that I’m not feeding you a bunch of lines just because I’m annoyed that you’re asking me?

John: Well people, annoying liars should be represented in every poll because they are represented in every vote and at every meeting.

Peter: Yeah, but isn’t it a little different going into a secret ballet booth than somebody calls up and says, “Hi, I’m from the Zogby Poll, what do you think of the sheriffs race?” And I’m so annoyed at getting calls. I say something that’s not true. How do you cleanse for that?

John: Well, what you do is by calling enough people in your sample and then especially in the world of politics because you can measure what you said as opposed to what the actual behavior is. On election day, what we’ve done, all of us actually in the field, is built up a pretty decent record of accuracy so you know then that for every liar there is out there, there’s either another liar who cancels that person out or that fundamentally almost everybody is really telling the truth.

Peter: And one way to prove that out is then to look at how the results that you came up with in your forecast correlate to that which actually happened and you’re here being awfully modest. You have the best track record in the industry, right?

John: We do. We have an excellent track record. You know, here and there things change at the last minute and something gets wrong but, you know…

Peter: Like John Kerry’s going to be president or something like that. Minor stuff…

John: Little stuff like that. However when push comes to shove, we get them right, and when we get them wrong it’s a point or two in the opposite direction and we get a pass on those sorts of things.

Peter: And why is that? Why are people honest? For example, if you were going to conduct a poll about people living in this country illegally and you started to call to communities like here in Los Angeles. We have a great number of people from Mexico who are here without documentation, wouldn’t they be prone to not answering you accurately?

John: Oh. That is a hole in the industry. You know when you get into questions of the illegality, frankly when you get into communities where there are a lot of first generation immigrants, there is a high degree of suspicion. Many of them come from countries where….

Peter: Somebody with a clipboard or with a good suit on at the door knocking, that’s not a good sign.

John: That’s not a good thing.

Peter: You are listening to the Business Shrink. The Business Shrink is Peter Morris. Peter Morris, not here today, he’s off working, I’m sitting in for him, Peter Laufer at the BEA, Book Expo America where we are launching the first in the Business Shrink book series The Dysfunctional Workplace, From Chaos to Collaboration: A Guide to Keeping Sane on the Job, and with me here at the Los Angeles convention center, with a really nice crowd developing is John Zogby and we’re in the middle of talking about polling and your book The Way We’ll Be, but first while we were in our break there, you said you want to clarify the erroneous polling numbers regarding the John Kerry win.

John: No, the polling numbers were right on the money, nationally and for that matter almost every state with the exception of Ohio, we’re off a few points. But I took the numbers and some of the barometric reading questions that we gave, that we got from the public, and I projected…

Peter: You personally…

John: …projected a Kerry victory, as an analyst.

Peter: So was that a wrong thing to do? Did you then slap your hand? Did your corporate side slap your personal hand?

John: Yeah, I did simply because, when I looked and saw 45% thought that Bush deserved to be re-elected and 46-47% of the country headed in the right direction. Presidents normally are not re-elected with those kind of numbers and so I thought that the last 1 1/2-2% that were undecided would swing to Kerry, that’s where I went wrong.

Peter: So that’s a mistake then from your point of view to mess with the science and allow that subjective analysis to go in there?

John: Well, the science was fine I think what it was, was that I saw my hat then as the analyst hat and that I was making a projection and in reality we don’t predict or make projections, we should just let the numbers talk for themselves.

Peter: Yeah, now speaking of the numbers talking to themselves, concurrent with the book “Expo America” here, you came out with a poll that in many ways seems counter intuitive to the terrors that are not just rippling through this industry but cascading through this industry. That one, nobody is reading, and two, if anybody is reading they’re going to be reading off a screen and not enjoying the texture of the printed word on a dead tree.

John: You know, Neil Pulsman’s Social Critic, argued that with every new technology it buries an old technology. But the fact of the matter is people are listening to the radio, even though there’s television, people are watching television even though there’s an internet, people are still reading books even though there are e-books. Now, e-books we’ve found about 10-11% who said that they liked e-books and would be e-book consumers. A larger number among 18-29 year olds, but people are still buying books…the dollars may be down, but…

Peter: But not even that much…

John: No, people are buying books. You know, Barnes & Noble, Amazon, they’re all in business and doing well. Wal-Mart, Costco…

Peter: And people are saying to your pollsters, that they’re reading, too. So, why is it that we have this impression that we have a post-literate culture?

John: Because I think sometimes, not unlike pollsters occasionally, we don’t let the numbers talk, we look at the numbers and do our own interpretations. Maybe that’s a little segue from the Kerry-Bush mistake that I made, but the fact of the matter is, look, you can’t extrapolate from a book expo, but there’s a lot of people here. There are a lot of people at your local bookstore, your Barnes & Noble. There’s a recession, people have fewer dollars to spend, maybe the dollars are not growing the way that we’d like them to grow. Maybe the publishers are having a little rougher time, but I think the factors are pointing to our getting out of this, and the fact is, people are reading large numbers of books, and they love it.

Peter: And in fact, your investment in a book versus a movie theater ticket is huge. You have the pass along value of the book, you re-read the book, you can use it as a doorstop, or a decoration on your coffee table…you get a lot of value out of a book.

John: People are reading. They may not be reading some kinds of books, but there are others they are reading, and witness that beyond the independent booksellers, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, online are doing very well, and so is your local drugstore. Wal-Mart…

Peter: And yet you’re studies show that the independents are indeed suffering greatly because of the Barnes & Noble’s and Borders…

John: Yeah, but a lot of people are still buying, 49%, are still buying from independent book sellers.

Peter: You’re listening to the Business Shrink…the Business Shrink is Peter Morris. I’m Peter Laugher, at the BEA: Book Expo America, at the convention center in Los Angeles, with John Zogby. We’re launching the book, the first book of the Business Shrink books series, The Dysfunctional Workplace, and we’re pleased to be broadcasting from here. And watching people pick the book up and look at it with interest. And also launching here is John Zogby’s book, “The Way We’ll Be.” And that then begs the question, which I’m sure you must address in the book, which I have not seen yet, it’s not out yet. It comes out in August, and it’s always difficult to interview an author when you haven’t read the book, but it’s that question of how much do polls drive what we do as a society. If I hear that it’s going to be a slam dunk for Barack Obama in November against John McCain, and somebody asks me if I want to go sailing on election day, do I just go sailing because I know my vote won’t count, and then it’s your fault that John McCain wins.

John: Boy, the day before the New Hampshire primary this year, colleagues Keith Oberman and Chris Matthews were saying, how are we going to write Hillary Clinton’s obituary tomorrow at the New Hampshire primary? Voters are in a feisty mood, they develop their own moods. Now, they’ll read the polls, they’ll look at them, and understand that they’re kind of a reflection of how they think. But I don’t really see any evidence that they have that much of an impact…

Peter: So then what is their value then?

John: Ah…the value is simply to take a barometric reading. You know, if I know I have to lose weight November 4th, I’m not going to get on the scale November 4th, I’m going to get along every which way and see just how badly I’m doing, or how well I’m doing.

Peter: How well you’re doing, we hope. So, do you worry though, then that which has been charged is true? That a politician is watching your results more than looking at the broader picture and that politician is too concerned about his or her popularity? I guess in a way George Bush is a reflection that that’s not true, because his popularity is as awful as anybodies could possibly be in his office.

John: I think public opinion plays a factor and should play a factor. But it can’t be the only or the decisive factor in how a politician behaves. My understanding of politicians, the successful ones anyway, is that they come in with a core set of their own values. Now what’s the value of a poll? To determine should I emphasize this or not emphasize this? Should I say it this way, or should I say it that way? There are ways of selling and packaging those values and those ideas, and there are clearly ways of not doing that. And that’s one of the values of public opinion, not so much to tell a politician this is what you should think, and this is what you should not think.

Peter: Yeah.

John: More a question of emphasis.

Peter: And does it continue to be a thrill 30-odd years later, to go out there? What is the fascination for you?

John: The real fascination is seeing something that’s developing while we’re in the middle, while we’re in the eye of the storm and then seeing it continue to develop there. In this book there are several “eureka” moments, things that I had been following, you know, especially since the mid-to-late-90’s and then on through. Then all of a sudden you see the numbers moving in a certain direction every year, every couple of years, and then…wow. It’s changing…there’s some things developing here. The next poll that comes out, another 5 points towards that direction, compared to when we first started 10 years ago. There’s a seismic shift that’s taking place. That’s the sort of thing that’s very exciting. Kind of being able to capture something maybe before anybody else does.

Peter: And then be able to draw the world’s attention to that and maybe have an involvement in social change because you’re spotlighting it.

John: Being the philosopher, being the person who captures the vectors and points/sees the direction being pointed, that’s much more intriguing to me than who’s ahead today or tomorrow in a presidential race, believe it or not.

Peter: No, I do believe it. You’re listening to the Business Shrink, the Business Shrink is Peter Morris, he’s the author of the new book, the first in the business book series, “The Dysfunctional Workplace.” I’m Peter Laugher, sitting in for him here, at BEA, Book Expo America, broadcasting with John Zogby, famous for the Zogby Poll, and soon to be famous for the book, “The Way We’ll Be.” Now, let me ask you this…you haven’t seen this yet. Here’s the “Dysfunctional Workplace”, the book by Peter Morris, the first in the series. Why do we have what seems to be an insatiable appetite in this country for books that tell us what we ought to be doing. In some ways there’s a corollary there to poll work, right? Why do we want somebody to tell us, as Peter Morris does here in The Dysfunctional Workplace, what we ought to be doing, and particularly in business, the business books?

John: The key word is “connectivity” or “connected.” There are so many things out there that force us into our own privacy, into an atomized little piece of the world. Whether we’re commuting in a little car, or a subway car, or walking on our own with an iPod. We ultimately have our own thoughts and our own needs, and our own hurt feelings. And what we want to know as human beings is: How do I fit? Am I the only one who’s hurt? Am I the only one who’s helped? This isn’t working for me…is it working for them? And, you know, what we do, whether it’s polls or authors, is try to give people an explanation for it, an understanding a bit. In that sense that works for a lot of people because otherwise you just won’t have it, you’ll never know, you won’t have any idea…

Peter: So what you’re saying is that the growing anonymity of the society, the automatic teller machine instead of the bank teller, the automatic toll taker instead of stopping at the toll booth and saying “Good morning” to the guy you give your $5 to or the gal, the drive-thru at the restaurant. This is creating a loss of some kind of a tribal interaction that we used to have that allowed us to have a touchstone that we’re missing…

John: Well, yeah…in a lot of ways, we used to be able to walk into a bank and have the teller say, “You look nice today.” “Oh, alright!” Or you walk into a bank innocently, and tell her “I don’t like your attitude…” “I didn’t do anything!”, “Well at least I had some sort of feedback.” But it’s bigger than that. You know, in the workplace, or hearing an opinion, or watching an event…I can’t tell you the number of people who write after they’ve seen a poll, or read a book, and they’ve said, “Gee, everybody I’ve talked to is with me on this issue.”

Peter: Just saying goodbye now to John Zogby…it’s been great spending a half an hour or so with you.

John: My pleasure.

Peter: And your book, which is coming out in August is…

John: “The Way We’ll Be.”

Peter: Any your poll that you’ve conducted about the book business had one wonderful, somewhat frivolous question, which was, if the president calls you at 3-o’ clock in the morning, what book do you suggest the president read, right?

John: History, lots of history.

Peter: Right, and that’s what I’m asking you. What is it that you think the president should read?

John: Me, personally?

Peter: Yes, what would you tell…

John: Oh, I would…

Peter: That’s what you’re saying was the answer, was history. Ok…but, you, if the president called you at 3-o’ clock tomorrow morning and said, “John, I cannot sleep.”

John: I would tell the president to read “All the Kings Men” which is a favorite political novel…

Peter: Oh, it’s one of my favorites too. Absolutely spectacular.

John: The best of all time…

Peter: Yes, yes, and…

John: Gives a little bit of depth from there…

Peter: Yeah, and what would be the takeaway lesson for the current president from that book?

John: Is that you can mess up, but hubris can destroy a politician.

Peter: Yes, indeed. So, you are listening to the Business Shrink program. And your Business Shrink is Peter Morris. I’m Peter Laufer sitting in for the Business Shrink Peter Morris, here at the BEA, Book Expo America.

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